For immediate release:

Contact:
Kristin Aguilera
Museum of American Financial History
Communications Director
212-908-4695
kaguilera@financialhistory.org

FINANCE MUSEUM VISITORS POLL SHOWS BEARS ROARING, BUT IS THE GROWL CONTRARIAN?
Results in sharp contrast with October 2000 results

Financial District, New York City - Is the stock market about to turn upward? That depends upon whether you think a loud roar from the bears is a contrarian indicator.

The Museum of American Financial History said today that 80% of participants in its latest survey of visitors -- taken in July -- believed the market would "crash" within the next six months. The results of a similar unscientific survey taken in October 2000 showed 16% believed there would be a "crash" in six months.

Ironically, the survey also showed increased involvement in the markets since October. More than two-thirds of visitors polled said they invest in the stock market, and half own stock in a high-tech company.

"Investor sentiment is a widely used contrarian technical indicator, but be warned that there is no definitive evidence of its infallibility," said Martin Fridson, Managing Director in Research at Merrill Lynch. "In October of 2000, investors were looking backward at five years of an 18% annual rise in the Dow. By contrast, the Dow has gone nowhere since October 2000. Both the previous optimism and the current pessimism appear to be classic cases of expectations being heavily influenced by the most recent experience."

Every visitor to the Museum's Wall Street District gallery has the option of participating in the survey. A polling computer is connected to a working replica of Thomas Edison's 1870 stock ticker, which prints personalized messages for all survey participants on ticker tape.

The Museum of American Financial History, an affiliate of the Smithsonian Institution, is the nation's only independent public museum dedicated to the history of growth, opportunity, and entrepreneurship in our democratic free market economy. It serves members, visitors to its gallery and website, and program participants nationwide with exhibits, events, publications and scholarly resources. Educational programming promotes financial literacy and empowerment, drawing upon the Museum's unsurpassed document collection. The Museum gallery is open to the public Tuesday - Saturday, 10 am - 4 pm. Admission is $2. For additional survey results, contact Kristin Aguilera at kaguilera@financialhistory.org.